Possible scenario
Ukraine Retaliates Selectively
25% Chance
Ukraine responds with strikes on drone storage, missile logistics, and Black Sea military infrastructure rather than a broad escalation. Western governments use the attack to justify additional air-defense and counter-drone support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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