Possible scenario
Sustained Missile Campaign
40% Chance
Russia continues using mass Geran drones and heavy missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses after the record Kirovohrad strike. The pattern resembles prior infrastructure campaigns, with Moscow likely testing Ukraine's interception capacity before winter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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