Possible scenario
Sudani Presses Control
25% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani uses the blast to reinforce his September 2026 deadline for militia disarmament and tighter state control over PMF weapons. The move is politically risky but consistent with Baghdad's need to reduce militia autonomy without provoking open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- TTE+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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