Possible scenario
Accident Narrative Holds
45% Chance
The PMF's explanation that damaged ammunition caused the explosion is accepted by Sudani's government and most Iraqi factions. Security forces secure the headquarters, remove unstable ordnance, and avoid a public confrontation with powerful Iran-aligned groups.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.