Possible scenario
Intermittent Flow Disruptions
25% Chance
A plausible downside case is that the pipeline operates but faces periodic stoppages, inspections, or reduced throughput after the recent Houthi-linked disruption. This would keep a moderate risk premium in crude without implying a broader Gulf supply crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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