Possible scenario
Flows Remain Stable
50% Chance
The most likely path is that Saudi Arabia keeps the East-West pipeline operating near the confirmed 5.8 million bpd rate. The quick restart after the Oct. 5 shutdown suggests repairs and operating redundancies are sufficient unless there is a fresh strike.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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