Possible scenario
Probe De-Escalates
40% Chance
South Korean investigators find attempted AI-enabled intrusions but no conclusive evidence tying the tools to the Chinese state. Beijing's denial is treated as a diplomatic rebuttal rather than a market-moving escalation, and regulators focus on patching and information sharing.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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