Possible scenario
Diplomatic Tensions Rise
20% Chance
South Korea presents additional evidence that points to Chinese-linked infrastructure or operators, and Beijing continues to deny involvement. The dispute becomes a bilateral security issue, with limited but noticeable risk-off effects in Korean financials and Asian technology names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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