Possible scenario
Flooding Persists
25% Chance
Residual rain bands keep river levels elevated after the record rainfall. Rescue operations continue, and the market response remains focused on Japanese insurers, transport operators, and utilities rather than global risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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