Possible scenario
Seat Disputed
20% Chance
Dallagnol receives enough support to affect the Senate outcome, but the court battle continues after election day. This creates a contested seat, delayed certification, and renewed scrutiny of the TSE's role in policing candidacies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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