Possible scenario
Ban Holds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the TSE minister's injunction remains effective through election day, consistent with the court's 2023 decision removing Deltan Dallagnol from Congress. Dallagnol's camp denounces the ruling, but the electoral administration treats him as ineligible for the Senate contest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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