Possible scenario
Standoff Delays Work
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a prolonged but localized confrontation. Activists remain in the tree, Border Patrol and local sheriffs avoid another immediate removal, and construction crews lose several days while DHS weighs legal and public-relations risk.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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