Possible scenario
Court Expands Halt
25% Chance
Because a federal court already blocked a Big Bend wall segment days earlier, activists and allied groups have a plausible path to seek emergency relief. The legal question is whether DHS complied with environmental, tribal-consultation, and statutory-review obligations before felling old-growth trees.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.