Possible scenario
State-tribal rollback
25% Chance
States, tribes, and sports leagues could regain momentum by persuading courts or the CFTC that sports event contracts functionally replicate illegal sports betting. This would sharply narrow Kalshi's sports expansion and reinforce the regulatory moat around licensed sportsbooks and tribal gaming compacts.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.3%
- Consumer Services +1.1%
Tickers
- DKNG+4.7%
- FLUT+4.2%
- HOOD-2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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