Possible scenario
Federal compromise framework
40% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated federal framework rather than a clean victory for either Kalshi or state gaming regulators. The CFTC keeps jurisdiction over event contracts but adds sports-specific consumer-protection, integrity, and tribal-compact safeguards.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Tickers
- DKNG+2.9%
- FLUT+2.4%
- HOOD-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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