Possible scenario
Renewed Gulf Disruption
30% Chance
A new Houthi strike, tanker incident, or naval confrontation revives fears that already-tight crude and refined-product markets face further disruption. This is the clearest upside risk because Brent has already reacted sharply to regional attacks and OPEC+ has not added supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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