Possible scenario
Policy Supply Relief
22% Chance
Governments may respond to $100-plus crude with additional strategic reserve releases, shipping coordination, or pressure on producers to stabilize supply. Such measures would not eliminate geopolitical risk, but they could quickly take heat out of futures markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Consumer Services +1.2%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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