Scenario description
Assume the Persian Gulf tanker dislocation materially eases during the observation window. Ship-to-ship transfer locations and direct-delivery choices no longer create major delays for Middle East-to-Asia VLCC movements, and charterers regain access to more immediately available tonnage. Middle East-to-Asia VLCC or supertanker hire costs fall materially from the recently reported extreme levels; the exact normalized rate, the mix of Gulf of Oman transfers versus direct India deliveries, and cargo volumes remain as reported by market sources rather than assumed here.