Scenario description
Assume Persian Gulf tanker congestion and altered ship-to-ship transfer patterns remain operationally disruptive through the observation window. Cargo transfers continue to be shifted farther from the Strait of Hormuz, including toward the Gulf of Oman, and some charterers or shipowners continue using direct VLCC deliveries to India to avoid delays. Immediate VLCC availability remains scarce, and reported Middle East-to-Asia VLCC or supertanker hire costs remain unusually elevated versus pre-surge levels; the exact daily rate, voyage economics, and affected cargo volumes remain as reported by market sources rather than assumed here.