Possible scenario
Federal Case Advances
55% Chance
The most likely path is that federal prosecutors treat the alleged Texas Capitol plot and AIPAC threat as a serious criminal-security case and keep Caldera in federal custody. The FBI's custody move indicates DOJ intends to assert federal jurisdiction rather than leave the matter to state bond conditions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.