Possible scenario
Charges Narrowed
20% Chance
Investigators may determine that the evidence supports serious threats but not a fully operational Capitol attack plot. In that case, DOJ could pursue narrower federal charges while still arguing the case warrants supervision or detention.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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