Possible scenario
Trump Defies Limits
20% Chance
Trump rejects efforts by Republican strategists to limit his campaign footprint and schedules rallies in competitive states anyway. The dispute exposes tension between the Trump operation, the NRCC, and candidates trying to survive in toss-up districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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