Possible scenario
GOP Stabilizes Toss-ups
35% Chance
Republican campaign committees limit Donald Trump's appearances in suburban and Biden-to-Harris-won districts, while using him for fundraising and conservative media hits. House Speaker Mike Johnson and NRCC strategists keep vulnerable candidates focused on inflation, border security, and local issues, improving the party's odds of holding several toss-up seats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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