Possible scenario
Reciprocal Energy War
45% Chance
Russia continues trying to degrade Ukraine’s grid before winter, while Ukraine answers with strikes on Russian oil depots, refineries, and power-linked logistics. This is the most likely path because both sides have already rejected the practical terms of an energy ceasefire through action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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