Possible scenario
Oil Logistics Escalation
18% Chance
Ukraine broadens retaliation from storage depots to higher-value Russian oil logistics, while Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian energy sites. This remains less likely than contained reciprocal strikes, but the recent pattern of attacks on oil depots makes it plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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