Possible scenario
Infrastructure Attack Escalation
20% Chance
The Yandex outage becomes part of a wider campaign against Russian digital infrastructure, including telecom exchanges, colocation facilities, and logistics IT systems. This remains a Russia-centered technology and security shock, but it carries modest global risk-off implications because it signals deeper targeting of civilian-use infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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