Scenario description
Assume Germany's federal governing arrangement led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz ceases to operate in its current form by the resolution date. The initiating event is an operational federal political break: Merz resigns or is replaced as chancellor, the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition formally collapses, a snap federal Bundestag election is called because of coalition failure or loss of confidence, or the government loses the Bundestag confidence basis needed to continue as an ordinary governing coalition. The geography is Germany at the federal level. The known backdrop from supplied MarketBrief summaries is CDU state-election defeats, weak national polling for the governing parties, AfD and Left gains, record dissatisfaction with Merz and the coalition, and Merz's stated intent to remain in office and continue his economic reform agenda. The exact fiscal, regulatory, sectoral, or replacement-government policy settings after any breakdown are unavailable from the supplied evidence.