Possible scenario
NATO Air Policing
25% Chance
Poland asks NATO to reinforce the eastern flank after repeated Russian drone incidents near its border. The alliance avoids direct military retaliation but increases air policing, radar coverage, and short-range air-defense deployments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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