Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
18% Chance
Poland, Ukraine, NATO, and EU officials coordinate a technical response that lowers the chance of accidental escalation. Moscow continues strikes on Ukrainian targets, but the immediate border-risk narrative fades.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.