Possible scenario
Reciprocal Visa Deal
20% Chance
The youth invitation becomes part of a broader summit deliverable that lowers administrative barriers for students and tourists on both sides. This would signal a modest US-China thaw, especially if Washington slows visa revocations while Beijing eases entry procedures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Business Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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