Limited Grey-Zone Pressure
−0.7%
Iran or aligned actors test US and allied defenses below the threshold of open war. Cyber activity, surveillance, or proxy signaling reinforces the threat environment but stops short of a direct confirmed strike on European soil.
What it moves
- Energy+1.1%
- Industrials+0.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.