Diplomatic Off-Ramp
+0.6%
Back-channel diplomacy through Qatar, Oman, or European intermediaries reduces the immediate threat to US facilities. The US keeps some assets dispersed but signals that withdrawals from Mildenhall are precautionary rather than a step toward a larger campaign.
What it moves
- Energy−1.1%
- Consumer Services+0.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.