Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
20% Chance
Tehran reacts aggressively to the accusation, pairing denials with threats against U.S. and U.K. interests. The risk is not a direct state-on-state conflict, but further covert activity, cyber operations or proxy pressure that raises near-term geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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