Possible scenario
Contained Criminal Case
25% Chance
The case proceeds through British courts with prosecutors emphasizing the alleged recruitment of U.K. nationals rather than a public confrontation with Tehran. Intelligence officials brief allies, but the government avoids measures that would significantly escalate U.K.-Iran relations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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