Possible scenario
Framework Drags On
25% Chance
The US and G7 partners reach a political understanding on using frozen Russian assets, but the ceasefire terms require further legal and monitoring work. Kyiv receives reassurance on financing, yet the energy and maritime truce remains conditional and vulnerable to battlefield events.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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