Possible scenario
Narrow Truce Agreed
40% Chance
Washington uses the proposed $100 billion Russian-asset-backed financing package to secure a limited ceasefire covering power-grid strikes and parts of Black Sea shipping. Moscow accepts a narrow deal because it does not require a broader battlefield ceasefire, while Kyiv gains near-term protection for winter infrastructure and port exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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