Possible scenario
Sustained Oil Outage
30% Chance
The strike disables more important production, stabilization, or gathering infrastructure than initially indicated. Markets reassess Saudi supply reliability after repeated Houthi attacks in September and October, producing a larger oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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