Possible scenario
Damage Contained
40% Chance
Saudi air defenses, redundancy at Ghawar, and Aramco emergency crews limit the physical damage. Oil markets still price a risk premium, but the immediate supply loss is small and Saudi exports continue largely on schedule.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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