Scenario description
Assume the Yarmouk Basin disruption does not produce durable containment and the Israel-Syria southern frontier experiences renewed proxy-security escalation before the resolution date. This includes a confirmed rocket launch or attempted launch preparation from southern Syria near the Israeli frontier, further reported rocket equipment or cells in Daraa/Quneitra/Yarmouk Basin, or Israeli artillery strikes and ground incursions continuing as a repeated security pattern. Hezbollah's denial of connection to the reported detainees remains a disputed attribution issue; the operational shock is recurring border violence or interdicted launch activity, not attribution alone. The exact scale of rockets, launchers, casualties, and Israeli operations remains limited to public reporting and is not assumed.