Scenario description
Assume Syrian security forces materially contain proxy rocket activity in southern Syria after the reported Yarmouk Basin arrests and dismantling of rocket-launch equipment near the Israeli frontier. Through the resolution window, no confirmed rocket fire from southern Syria into Israeli-held or Israeli-controlled territory occurs, no newly reported rocket-launch cell in Daraa/Quneitra is described as operationally preparing an imminent launch, and Israeli artillery strikes or ground incursions along the southern Syria frontier fall to only isolated incidents rather than the near-daily pattern described in current reporting. The exact number of Syrian deployments, arrests, seized launchers and Israeli operations is not specified beyond what is publicly reported.