Possible scenario
Damage Is Contained
38% Chance
Mamdani keeps the word genocide but narrows his remarks to Israel's Gaza policy rather than Jewish New Yorkers or city institutions. Key progressive allies and some interfaith leaders accept a process-oriented reset, limiting the political fallout.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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