Possible scenario
RSF Resilience Persists
20% Chance
The RSF absorbs the loss by tightening command around loyal units in Darfur and relying on mobile raids rather than holding fixed positions. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's network remains weakened but not defeated, prolonging the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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