Possible scenario
Defection Deal Spreads
25% Chance
The defection creates a template for negotiated surrenders, prisoner releases, and local amnesty arrangements. External mediators, including Saudi Arabia, the United States, the African Union, and IGAD, try to convert battlefield fragmentation into ceasefire talks.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.