Possible scenario
Army Momentum Builds
45% Chance
The defection of a Special Task Group chief signals weakening RSF cohesion after the loss of its last North Kordofan stronghold. The Sudanese Armed Forces under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan use the new intelligence and manpower to press remaining RSF pockets in Kordofan and tighten pressure on Darfur.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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