Possible scenario
Russian retaliation widens
25% Chance
Russia treats the renewed refinery attack as justification for another large strike package against Ukrainian power and gas infrastructure. The escalation raises near-term geopolitical risk, but still falls short of direct Russia-NATO confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.