Possible scenario
Contained strike cycle
45% Chance
Ukraine resumes refinery strikes after the three-day pause, but the Ryazan hit causes limited operational damage and no immediate Russian export halt. Moscow retaliates rhetorically and with localized strikes, while oil markets price a modest risk premium rather than a supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Tickers
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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