Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
35% Chance
The most likely next phase is political and documentary scrutiny rather than an immediate halt to construction. Trump’s reversal on personally funding the ballroom gives congressional Democrats, watchdog groups, and ethics lawyers a clear factual hook for subpoenas, FOIA litigation, and donor-access investigations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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