Possible scenario
Project Proceeds Unchanged
30% Chance
Despite criticism over Trump’s unpaid pledge, the administration continues construction and argues that private donations spare taxpayers. Prior Supreme Court clearance makes a full stop unlikely absent a new legal defect, so the base case is completion with reputational controversy rather than market consequences.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.