Possible scenario
Security Crisis Overlaps
−0.4%
The certification fight spills into street politics or overlaps with renewed Gaza or northern-front security incidents. This is less likely than a legal-political resolution, but Israel’s post-Oct 7 environment makes domestic tension and security escalation mutually reinforcing risks.
What it moves
- Finance−0.5%
- Consumer Services−0.5%
- Market volatility
- Oil prices
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