Possible scenario
Red Sea Diversion
28% Chance
Large container and tanker operators suspend Bab al-Mandab transits and reroute around southern Africa. The chokepoint is not formally closed by outside powers, but commercial behavior effectively removes a large share of Red Sea traffic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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